Possible scenario
Losses Stay Contained
25% Chance
The apology is followed by reassurance that retail losses are painful but contained within a small set of leveraged products. Policymakers avoid aggressive intervention, allowing semiconductor and brokerage shares to trade more on earnings and AI demand signals than on the ETF controversy.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.7%
- Finance +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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