Security-first government

15% Chance

Kulbergs builds a more hawkish coalition centered on defense, border security, and Russia policy. The outcome is compatible with Latvia's NATO orientation, but it shifts the policy mix toward security spending and tighter fiscal trade-offs.

Initial impacts

Market volatility Up

Secondary impacts

Industrials +0.5%
Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Consumer Services -0.1%
Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%

Portfolio impact

S&P 500-0.0%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Security-first government

Initial impacts

Secondary impacts

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Portfolio