Possible scenario
War Grinds On
30% Chance
Saudi Arabia maintains communication with Iran but avoids taking ownership of a settlement that could expose it to retaliation or U.S. congressional scrutiny. The conflict remains contained but unresolved, with periodic strikes and stalled sanctions talks.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.