Possible scenario
Saudi Mediation Advances
38% Chance
Saudi Arabia uses its restored channels with Tehran and security ties with Washington to open a credible de-escalation track. Senator Chris Murphy's comments become part of a broader Democratic and Gulf push to move the conflict from military strikes back toward diplomacy.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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