Possible scenario
Sustained Cardon Restart
58% Chance
PDVSA stabilizes the Cardon refinery restart after the October 6 fire, avoiding evidence of major structural damage. Domestic gasoline and diesel availability improves modestly, while global oil-market effects remain minimal because the event is a single refinery restart.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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