Possible scenario
Renewed Refinery Outage
13% Chance
The restart proves premature and PDVSA is forced to halt operations again after identifying damage from the October 6 fire. This would revive domestic fuel shortage risks and create a modest bullish impulse for regional product markets.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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