Possible scenario
Fragile Partial Operations
24% Chance
The refinery resumes operations but remains unstable, with unit-by-unit testing and intermittent constraints. Venezuela avoids a full shutdown, but fuel balances stay tight and traders watch for product import tenders.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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