Possible scenario
External Strikes Expand
18% Chance
The failure of Saudi airpower to break through prompts a broader US, UK, and Gulf response against Houthi missile, drone, and radar sites. This is less likely than a stalemate but plausible because Bab el-Mandeb is a global shipping chokepoint and Houthi gains are reportedly enabled by Iranian arms.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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