Possible scenario
Chokepoint Stalemate Holds
40% Chance
Houthi forces continue to prevent Saudi-backed air and ground forces from building momentum toward Bab el-Mandeb. The most likely near-term outcome is a contested stalemate, with Saudi aircraft constrained by air-defense threats and shipping insurers keeping Red Sea premiums elevated.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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