Possible scenario
Wider Winter Escalation
20% Chance
Russia broadens the campaign from individual energy sites to a coordinated winter effort against generation, ports and rail-linked logistics. Ukraine asks the US, Germany and other NATO states for emergency air-defense systems and longer-range strike permissions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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