Possible scenario
Truce Claim Collapses
40% Chance
Russia continues attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure despite Trump's claimed truce, and Kyiv publicly rejects the arrangement as unenforceable. This is the most likely path because the Kremlin has repeatedly used winter energy pressure and Ukraine says it was not properly consulted.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Utilities -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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