Possible scenario
Diplomacy Reopens
25% Chance
The White House tries to rescue Trump's truce claim by pushing both sides toward a narrower, monitored pause on attacks against power plants and substations. Kyiv demands written guarantees and monitoring before recognizing any ceasefire.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.2%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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