Possible scenario
No Durable Ceasefire
45% Chance
Russia's one-day pause is treated by Kyiv and its allies as a tactical offer rather than a credible path to elections. Zelensky's government keeps martial law in place, while Moscow continues to argue that Ukraine's leadership lacks electoral legitimacy.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Energy +0.3%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.