Possible scenario
Conflict Escalates Politically
20% Chance
Moscow uses the failed ceasefire proposal to intensify its legitimacy campaign against Zelensky while maintaining military pressure. Western governments respond with stronger language, more air-defense pledges, or sanctions preparation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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