Possible scenario
Firewall Coalition Holds
42% Chance
Merz most likely responds to the AfD's state-level breakthrough by tightening coordination with the SPD and democratic state leaders rather than opening any formal channel to the AfD. The CDU-SPD government uses a limited coalition deal on migration, internal security, and budget priorities to show control without renegotiating the full coalition agreement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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