Possible scenario
Coalition Frictions Deepen
25% Chance
The AfD's state presidency intensifies pressure on Merz from the CDU right while the SPD resists further concessions. The federal coalition remains in office, but budget talks slow and the government looks increasingly reactive.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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