Possible scenario
AfD Normalization Advances
18% Chance
A meaningful minority risk is that parts of the CDU, especially in eastern states, treat AfD parliamentary offices as a practical reality and begin tactical cooperation. Merz publicly rejects coalition talks, but the firewall becomes less credible and German political risk rises.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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