Possible scenario
Security Clampdown Holds
42% Chance
The most likely near-term outcome is a contained security response by NYPD and Mamdani's staff. Police make limited arrests, future appearances are moved or hardened, and the story remains primarily a New York political-security issue rather than a market-moving national event.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.