Possible scenario
Trust Issue Deepens
30% Chance
Rogers and the NRSC successfully fuse the convention clip with the October 5 dual-citizenship admission into a broader honesty narrative. The controversy becomes less about immigration status and more about whether El-Sayed's campaign misled voters repeatedly.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.2%
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.