Possible scenario
Sustained Tanker Attrition
45% Chance
Iran and the IRGC keep attacking or harassing selected tankers while avoiding a direct strike on US naval assets. The most likely near-term path is a grinding security crisis in which oil flows continue but with higher insurance costs, slower transits, and sporadic vessel damage.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
- Consumer Services -1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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