Possible scenario
Limited Coalition Strikes
25% Chance
Washington and partners decide that repeated tanker hits require a military response, but the first round is limited to IRGC launch sites, radar, or drone infrastructure. This path raises escalation risk while also offering a chance to restore deterrence around commercial shipping.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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