Possible scenario
Saudi Retaliation
20% Chance
Riyadh concludes that deterrence requires visible retaliation and launches strikes on Houthi missile storage, launch teams, or command nodes in Yemen. The risk is that the Houthis respond with further attacks on Saudi civilian infrastructure or energy assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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