Possible scenario
Attacks Continue
25% Chance
The Houthis attempt additional missile or drone attacks before the airport can fully reopen. Even if most projectiles are intercepted, the renewed threat forces Saudi authorities to reassess airspace safety and insurance risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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