Possible scenario
First Agent Incident
18% Chance
A plausible but less likely outcome is that Apollo's warning is followed by reports of a real automated-withdrawal episode at a small bank or fintech-linked deposit platform. Even if contained, confirmation of the mechanism would sharply reprice digital-deposit risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -4.7%
- Technology -2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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