Possible scenario
Financials Reprice Risk
27% Chance
Investors do not see an imminent run, but they demand a larger risk premium for banks with high uninsured deposits and digital-only customer bases. The market reaction remains sector-led, with only limited spillover to broader credit and rates.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -2.1%
- Technology -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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