Possible scenario
Voluntary Disclosure Deal
40% Chance
The five CEOs respond without subpoenas, providing incident summaries, red-team logs, and commitments to share agent-abuse indicators with CISA and the new AI safety body. This is the most likely near-term path because large AI firms have incentives to show cooperation and avoid a formal adversarial investigation.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- MSFT+0.1%
- GOOG+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.