Possible scenario
Export Standoff Deepens
22% Chance
Russia keeps diesel exports restricted and signals that fuel flows will remain a geopolitical bargaining chip. With the damaged TotalEnergies-Aramco refinery still offline, the market prices a larger winter distillate deficit.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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