Possible scenario
Limited Defense Deployment
25% Chance
Islamabad follows through with visible but controlled military support, likely advisers, intelligence officers and air-defense coordination rather than frontline combat units. Saudi Arabia uses the deployment to raise deterrence while avoiding a broader Iran-linked conflict.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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