Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-escalation
15% Chance
Regional governments conclude that escalation would threaten Saudi infrastructure, Iranian normalization gains and Pakistani economic interests. Iran, Oman, China and the UN help produce a temporary reduction in Houthi launches.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.1%
- Energy -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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