Possible scenario
Sanctions And Seizures
24% Chance
Iran tries to convert its environmental claim into leverage through foreign courts, tanker liens, and pressure on frozen assets. The U.S. responds with sanctions and legal countermeasures, creating a more confrontational but still mostly non-kinetic phase.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance -0.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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