Possible scenario
Legal Diplomacy Prevails
38% Chance
Iran channels its compensation demand through the United Nations, the International Court of Justice, and environmental agencies rather than immediately retaliating. Washington and Jerusalem reject liability, but the filing creates a diplomatic track that modestly lowers near-term escalation risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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