Possible scenario
Temporary Truce Accepted
35% Chance
Iran accepts the core US response and agrees to a short ceasefire tied to a monitored reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This is plausible because Tehran has already offered a seven-day reopening and may use the pause to seek sanctions relief while avoiding further US-Israeli strikes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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