Possible scenario
Talks Drag On
30% Chance
Iran does not accept or reject the US response outright and instead sends a revised counterproposal through Oman or Qatar. Both sides avoid major escalation while testing whether a limited Hormuz arrangement can be separated from broader sanctions and nuclear issues.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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