Possible scenario
Limited War Continues
23% Chance
Iran concludes the US response is insufficient and keeps military pressure on Israel, US forces, and Gulf-aligned states without declaring a full closure of Hormuz. This is credible because both Washington and Tehran may want leverage without triggering an uncontrolled regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.6%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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