Possible scenario
Fragile Fiscal Compromise
27% Chance
France avoids an immediate fiscal breakdown, but the coalition remains unstable and the savings plan is only partly implemented. Fitch does not downgrade at once, yet its warning keeps sovereign-risk premiums elevated.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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