Possible scenario
Fitch Downgrades France
22% Chance
The fiscal package fails or is weakened enough that Fitch concludes debt stabilization is no longer credible. A one-notch downgrade would be a material sovereign-credit event, hitting French financials and widening European credit risk premiums.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -2.0%
- Utilities -1.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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