Possible scenario
Budget Deal Holds
38% Chance
The government secures enough parliamentary support to approve most of the €43 billion savings plan. Fitch keeps France at A+ while maintaining a negative outlook, citing implementation risk but acknowledging near-term fiscal consolidation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.6%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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