Possible scenario
Contained Political Damage
42% Chance
Mamdani and allied officials move quickly to separate his appearance at the vigil from the protesters' pro-Hamas chant. Jewish civic groups still criticize his past rhetoric, but the incident remains primarily a New York political controversy rather than a broader market-moving event.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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