Possible scenario
Managed Naval Standoff
25% Chance
A limited operational encounter follows as U.S. forces increase monitoring around unmanned underwater vehicles and Iran tests boundaries. The likely result is a tense but controlled naval standoff rather than a broader military clash.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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