Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
20% Chance
Regional intermediaries and the Swiss protecting-power channel push the dispute back into diplomatic procedures. This scenario limits military signaling and focuses on protocols for unmanned maritime systems operating near Iranian waters.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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