Possible scenario
Claim Fades Quickly
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Washington's denial holds and Iran does not produce convincing evidence of a second seizure. Both sides keep the dispute largely informational, avoiding a kinetic confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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