Possible scenario
Margins Normalize Sooner
25% Chance
Investors conclude the Q3 refining-margin surge is near its peak as product inventories rebuild or demand softens. The risk is most acute for pure-play refiners, while integrated majors such as Exxon are buffered by upstream earnings.
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
Tickers
- XOM-2.3%
- VLO-1.9%
- MPC-1.6%
- PSX-1.6%
- -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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