Possible scenario
US Framework Holds
25% Chance
The U.S. keeps the controlled-sales framework intact, allowing Venezuelan crude to reach buyers while limiting revenue access for Caracas. This creates a managed outlet for Venezuelan production without a broad sanctions rollback.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Tickers
- CVX+1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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