Possible scenario
Trade Frictions Emerge
20% Chance
The flow continues but becomes uneven because of payment documentation, insurance, ship-to-ship transfer scrutiny, or crude-quality disputes. The disruption is operational rather than a full sanctions reversal, so market effects remain concentrated in oil and refiners.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Tickers
- CVX-0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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