Possible scenario
Oversight Fight Escalates
30% Chance
Congressional Democrats, civil-liberties groups, and former FBI officials turn the removals into a broader test of whether Patel is politicizing Bureau discipline. The fight likely centers on document preservation, whistleblower access, and whether Katie Miller received special treatment because of her ties to Stephen Miller.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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