Possible scenario
Targeted Licensing Regime
20% Chance
The administration splits the difference by requiring licenses or prior approvals for diesel exports rather than banning them outright. This slows spot trading, preserves some allied and contractual supply, and lowers litigation risk versus a blanket prohibition.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
- VLO-1.3%
- PSX-1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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