Possible scenario
Formal Export Ban
35% Chance
The White House moves from threats to a binding restriction after the collapse in available Gulf Coast tanker loadings signals exporters are racing policy risk. This is the most disruptive path for refiners because Gulf Coast diesel exports are a major outlet for production.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.8%
- Industrials +0.6%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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