Possible scenario
Claim Fades Quickly
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Nick Sortor's claim remains unsupported or is contradicted by campaign documentation. Given the recent C-SPAN footage dispute and the campaign's prior pushback on absence narratives, the allegation may become another short-lived campaign controversy rather than a verified development.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.