Possible scenario
Eizenkot Benefits From Backlash
30% Chance
Opposition parties frame the secret visit as improper foreign involvement days before voting. Given polling already shows Netanyahu’s coalition below a majority, Benny Gantz-aligned and centrist voters consolidate around Gadi Eizenkot as the cleaner security alternative.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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