Possible scenario
Travel Controls Tighten
25% Chance
Governments respond to the three-country transit history by tightening health screening at airports and land borders. The impact is concentrated in East African aviation, tourism and hospitality rather than global markets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.7%
- Healthcare +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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